Well it isn’t old news yet, after all we are just heading into February. So did you know that 2011 in the Valley we had the second highest sales record of the decade (100,959) running second to 2005′s housing bubble heights (104,725). But what is really amazing is that 47% of the sales in 2011 were cash sales. That’s right, Valley Buyers purchased over 47,400 single family properties with no financing. So just what did they buy. . . well here’s the break down. Seldom do I use graphs, but these are pretty simple to understand.

In summary, the 0,000 and under price point stacked up to 63% of the total cash sales, ( the majority of the buyers being investors) with another 24% in the 0,001 – 0,000 price range. Looking even closer, the cash transactions show that 48% were foreclosures and 24% were short sales. So if we add the numbers up 72% of the cash sales were distressed properties.

It will be interesting to see where we end up in 2012 since foreclosures are starting to dwindle down yet short sales seem to be on the rise as lenders are finally starting to realize they are far better off doing a short sale rather than a foreclosure. Will wonders never cease! Also inventory levels are substantially lower than where they were a year ago, hopefully resulting in more sellers putting their homes on the market and constituting more traditional sales at some higher prices.

Fountain Hills Up Close

Well here I go again with one of my Fountain Hills “hidden gem” blogs.  If you happen to be a beer lover then you need to pay attention to this story. Howard and I had lunch in our local little deli “Fountain Hills Express” the other day, because we love their big, fat  Chicago hot dogs (two for .00), and while we were waiting to be served we looked around and knew something seemed different. Then it dawned on us, they had rearranged everything in their store making it much more open and inviting to see everything that they carry. Much to our surprise we discovered that they offer for sale over 150 imports, craft and micro beers. For beer connoisseurs this is “beer heaven”. You have to check this out.

How do these selections sound: Alien beer from Roswell, NM, Mud shark brewery from Lake Havasu, Kronenbourg from France, Czechevar from the Czech republic, Tiger from Singapore and here’s just a few of their micro beers “Pipeline, Porter, Longboard, Firerock, Bikini Blonde, Big Swell and the best part is they will mix and match a six pack or special order your favorite beer if they don’t have it. I doubt you will have to do that very often with their huge selection, but for our seasonal visitors that miss their favorite beer from back home here’s your Fountain Hills source.

We live in a small town and we need to support our local businesses, especially the ones that go the extra mile to get our business. Fountain Hills Express is doing just that.  Kudos to them! Oh, and by the way, they have a great wine selection too. .

Fountain Hills Express is located at 11829 N. Saguaro Blvd in Fountain Hills (Saguaro and Panorama in the little shopping center). 480-837-3236

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Is the Valley of the Sun headed for a real estate recovery? Well it’s hard to argue with statistics. Sales rebounded in 2011 dramatically, hitting a high of 101,436 which is the second highest total sales of the decade. It was exceeded only by 2005 with 104,725 sales which was at the height of the real estate bubble.  So lets break down a few things that took place in 2011 that might lead us to believe that we just may be in a recovery mode.

Inventory

Total new listings in 2011 (121,041) fell slightly below the 2002 figure of 125,738. Correcting itself from the decade high of 173,363 after the housing bubble burst in 2006

Months Supply of Inventory

The decade months supply pattern follows the Valley’s journey from its “normal market” (starting in 2002 to mid 2004) through the buying and selling frenzy of mid decade (late 2004-early 2006) to the “correction” of the late decade (2007-2010).  The average months supply of inventory in 2011, which was 3.81 closely resembles the average months supply of inventory of 2003 which was 4.31, at the mid point of our last normal market.

Days on Market

Marketwide days on the market, while not indicative of days on market in smaller market niches, such as Fountain Hills, is a measure of overall market health. In 2011 DOM started the year at 113 and finished the year with a downward trend at 95.

Foreclosures Pending

Foreclosures pending, which fuel the Valley’s foreclosure sales, reached their pinnacle in November 2009 at 50,568 in contrast to 2011 which finished at 19,979, which by the way is 60.49% below the decade high. The average foreclosures pendings per year stubbornly held at 44,237 and 44,698 for 2009 and 2010. In 2011 it took an abrupt downward turn all year.

Distressed Sales

Distressed properties (short sales and foreclosures) as a percent of sales started the year at 70.2%. Although not without a few hiccups in direction over the course of 2011, it crashed through the 60% barrier in November and December, at 59.4% and 59.8%. Not only did the percent drop 10.4% over 2011, but the short sale to foreclosure mix shifted by year end to see short sales overtake foreclosures for the first time, granted by a small amount.

Pricing

Ah. . . pricing. We all want to know when the prices of our homes will stop going down or for that matter begin to go up. Pricing remains the last bastion of resistance to the Valley’s recovery. Unfortunately both List and Sales median and average prices showed very little movement over the course of 2011, basically stagnating at the “presumed” bottom. Median List price started 2011 at 4,900 and finished the year not much higher at 9,900. Average list price followed the same pattern, starting at 4,300 in January and finishing in December at 0,200

Sales pricing repeated the same lackluster performance of List pricing. Meidan Sales price began with 0,000 and ended 2011 at 7,000, well below the median list price of 9,900. Average Sales price in January was 7,000 and ended at 2,200. Much to our dismay, all four pricing metrics, List and Sales, took a full twelve months to go practically nowhere. On the positive side, given how long pricing has stalled, the Valley’s pricing has probably hit bottom. What is in dispute is how long it will stay there.

Pricing cannot correct itself until the forces of supply and demand equalize. Both List and Sales pricing are currently unduly influenced by the large numbers of distressed properties that compete for buyers. The slowing of foreclosures pending, if continued at the current rate, and here’s the good news, should stabilize in 2012, leading to a gradual decline to normal levels of foreclosures in the active property pool. In addition, growing lender mentality for short sales over foreclosure will also diminish foreclosure influence on pricing.

National predictions on home prices are a slow but steady upward climb in 2012. Given 2011′s underpinning metrics (inventory, sales, months supply of inventory and foreclosures pending) the Valley’s pricing is poised to gain traction in 2012.

Unemployment And Job Growth

Phoenix metro started the year with a 9.28 unemployment rate, with the rate’s overall trend line for 2011 downward. Preliminary figures for November are estimated at 7.7%, a drop of 1.58% from January. We are waiting with baited breath for December’s final percent. Arizona ended 2011 as a top ten growth state, now adding  jobs faster than the national average. Whoohoo!

The Bottom Line For 2011

In the 2011 “gaining momentum” column, are unit sales, total inventory, marketwide months supply of inventory, falling days on market, declining foreclosures pending, distressed property’s falling % of sales, falling unemployment and job growth.

In the 2011 “stagnant needs improvement” column, are all four pricing metrics: median and average List and Sales prices.

In the 2011 “loss” column, there is little moving in the wrong direction.

All in all, 2011 was a pretty good year on the road to recovery for the Valley of the Sun’s real estate market.

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By now you should be hearing all the positive buzz about the housing market. Inventory is low, sales are trending higher for the past 3-4 months consecutively, builders are starting to build, prices are expected to start inching up (finally) . . . and interest rates are at all time lows.

For the week ending January 5th, 2012 the GSE reports that a 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 3.91% (0.8 point). This is down from 3.95 percent the previous week.  Last year at this time the rate was 4.77 percent.

Even better is the 15-year fixed rate which averaged 3.23 percent (0.8 point), down from 3.24 percent from the week prior. A year ago the average 15-year rate was 4.13 percent.

These mortgage rates are amazing and you may never see them this low again in your lifetime or mine for that matter. If you are contemplating a real estate purchase, and have the wherewithal to do so,  you may want to think long and hard about getting off that fence before this opportunity passes you by. 2012 is going to be a very active real estate year, contact me if I can be of help for any of your real estate needs, I’d love to get you started with sending you some great listings. I also have some great mortgage broker referrals I can pass along to you so you are sure to get these great rates!

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Everything is looking better and better each month in Maricopa County. As we close up 2011, I think we can look forward to a even better 2012! Here is the Foreclosure Data from the Cromfort Report, a trusted resource for real estate statistics in Maricopa County.

1. Active Notices of default for residential properties as of the end of October ’11 were 21,903 units. Down from last month of 22,301. This is the 11th month in a row that we have seen decreases in the number of Residential Active Notices. Down from the all time high of December ’09 of 47,606
2. Foreclosures were at there all time high in March 2010 at 5,451. Residential foreclosures were 2233 last month. This was down 454 units from September.
3. The residential REO properties are sitting at 10,451 vs. last month of 13,556. Down 3015 units from last month! October of 2010 there were 20,821 REO properties, down 50%! Listed properties are approximately 2,713 units and pending are 3195. That tells us that there is approximately 4,544 properties that are foreclosed but not yet on the market.

Click here to see the graph of foreclosure data

As long as the notices for default stay on this path this is good news. Crystal ball, no I don’t have one of those, but I like what I’m seeing with these numbers and so should you.

Fountain Hills Up Close

If you are a resident in Fountain Hills you have probably been to this festival countless times. I know I have and I never tire of it even though it is held twice a year during the months of November and February. The fair this weekend promises to be super busy on Friday because it’s Veterans Day, a government and school holiday. Also according to the weather forecast we could see some rain on Saturday and Sunday.

Rain or shine the people come to see the original arts and crafts of some five hundred artisans from around the country. The timing of this event is perfect to start you holiday shopping. Distinctive, unique and one-of-a-kind gifts are plentiful and believe me when I say you cannot find these items at your local mall. I don’t know anyone that doesn’t love receiving a handmade or hand crafted gift at Christmas.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Besides all of the beautiful arts and crafts, twenty-two food concessions are set up and offer a variety of food for any ones palate. Gyros, hamburgers, bratwurst, barbecued turkey legs, caramel apples and chocolate covered strawberries are just a few of the selections. Oh and yes “kettle korn” . . hmmm good.

This year’s musical entertainment is provided by Sahnas Brothers, guitarists from Mesa. Their music is described as a jazzy blend influenced by the music of Greece and Spain. In addition Percussionist Paul McDermand will be playing his steel drums. Stopping for a rest and listening to some great music is half the fun of attending this fair.

So if you are looking for something special to do this weekend, head on out to Fountain Hills for another Great Fair. It promises to be fun for the entire family.

Background music in the video in this post is performed by Brule from their album Airo “Tribal Rythm”.

Fountain Hills Up Close

Halloween is a huge event in Fountain Hills. This is where as a community we shine. That home town feeling abounds when everyone gathers on the Avenue of the Fountains tomorrow for tricks, treats, games and prizes for everyone. When I say everyone, yes it’s the whole family that’s invited to show up in your cutest or scariest attire.  Don’t even think about leaving your four legged canine family member at home, Fido is welcome to join in the festivities. Just be sure he’s wearing a costume too.

What would Halloween be without monsters, ghosts, goblins and witches, a haunted mine and lots of other surprises. There will be costume judging and prizes for the best dressed pets and pet owners. Did I mention games and bouncers . . .oh yeah. Kids will be filling up their trick-or-treat bags with candy, popcorn and other treats from all the merchants on Avenue of the Fountains. This promises to be a great time for everyone. If I were you I’d be bringing my camera to capture some memorable Halloween moments.

The fun all begins at 4 PM and goes till 7:00 PM on Avenue of the Fountains in Fountain Hills.  You don’t want to miss it. Hope to see you there . . .

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In all likelihood when you purchased your home  you received a home warranty covering various items in your home, i.e. appliances, roof, air conditioner, plumbing and heating items, possibly your pool/spa etc. If you had a great Realtor® he or she got the seller to pay for the warranty. So here you are nearing the renewal date and questioning if you should renew it or not.

We all know in these economic times coming up with 0 to 0 is a lot of money for many of us. If you indeed did not have to pay for the initial coverage, I doubt that you paid much attention to the cost of your home warranty . Sure you had to pay the – service call if you had one and that probably felt like a pretty good deal, especially if you had something major go wrong like your hot water heater going bad. Perhaps you didn’t have any service calls at all and now you are faced with this renewal expense and there’s a good chance your saying “I don’t think so”.

Now for me, I live in a home that is 10+ years old. Age is definitely a factor to consider. How old are your appliances, the filter motor for your pool, your AC and heat pump, plumbing fixtures, hot water heater, garage door opener, your roof and some of the many other things that a home warranty can cover.

You should also factor in the additional costs of the service calls, they have a way of adding up if you have 3-4 of them in a year. These of course are costs over and above the cost of the warranty itself. Read the fine print of your policy before you renew to be sure the items that you may be concerned about are actually covered. Some of the items you want to be covered are not in the standard policy but are considered “optional coverage” and have additional fees.  I have had more than one surprise and found myself very disappointed when I found out the warranty did not cover “that specific” item.

The other thing, as a home owner, you should know that if you don’t have an existing home warranty you can always get one. These companies don’t  just cater to the new home buyer of a resale home. You can purchase a home warranty any time, but know that there will be a 30 day waiting period for it to go into effect.

For me, this year I really thought long and hard if I wanted to put out 0 for my renewal. Then I started adding up the what if’s, and again, for me, it made sense. When October 2012 shows up, I’ll be sure to let you know if I made a wise decision.

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Wow and I had been on such a roll since the first of the year when I first started blogging. Pretty much blogging three times a week, blogging ahead of time when I was out of town so as not to deviate from my blogging stride. I made the blogging vow to be there for my readers, rain or shine, sleet or snow, well maybe not the sleet or snow, it is Arizona you know. Then it happened, if your a blogger you probably know what I’m talking about.

Call it what you want, writers block, I just don’t know what to write about, I don’t feel like blogging today, I need to take a break, who’s reading my blog anyway that my blog will be missed, I’ve been too busy. . . and the excuses go on and on. Truth be known, its all of the above, in addition to being in a funk since my mom passed away a month ago.  I guess her passing gave me permission to disappear for awhile.

Well its 35 days now since my last post and as Jack Nicholson said in The Shining “I’m back”. Although I don’t mean it in a scary way, God I still see him with the ax hacking at that door. No “I’m back” because it’s time.  I have had my blogging sabbatical. My mom was a tough lady, I admired her strength and her follow through attitude, someone who always bounced back. I can hear telling me now “stop with the excuses”.

Fountain Hills Up Close

Sure you can go and look at properties on Zillow, Trulia, Realtor.com and all the other public sites that are available to you, but are you getting accurate and up to date information? There are hundreds of listings you need to sort through and then after you have done that, how many of them fit your real estate criteria and how many of them are actually available. Trust me there is an easier way to get new Phoenix area listings delivered right to your computer doorstep as soon as they come on the market so you never miss a listing.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Fountain Hills Up Close